中新网1月10日电(孔庆玲)美国以暗杀开局,伊朗用导弹报复。过去7天,可谓中东局势最动荡焦灼的日子;过去24小时,或许是美伊断交40年来最剑拔弩张的时刻。

NEW YORK (AP)- Iran retaliated with missiles as the United States began its assassination attempt on January 10. The last seven days have been one of the most volatile and fraught in the Middle East; the past 24 hours have been perhaps the most tense in 40 years.

  就在美伊战争一触即发之际,特朗普一份字斟句酌的声明,让全世界松了一口气。美国和伊朗从战争边缘各退了一步。如今中东危局暂缓,未来美伊对抗将如何发展?短期内开战的风险有多大?

Just as the U.S.-Iranian war was on the brink, Trump's carefully worded statement gave the world a sigh of relief. The United States and Iran each took a step back from the brink of war. Now that the crisis in the Middle East has stalled, how will the future US-Iranian confrontation develop? What are the risks of a short - term war?

  2020年的第一周,美国总统特朗普突然下令击杀伊朗三号人物苏莱曼尼,美伊关系急转直下,第三次世界大战被送上热搜。

In the first week of 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ordered the killing of Iran's No.3, Suleimani, and U.S.-Iranian relations turned sharply, and World War III was sent on a hot search.

  自1980年美国和伊朗断交以来,两国对抗和博弈从未中断。美国人对1979年驻伊朗大使馆被占领事件耿耿于怀,伊朗数十年来饱受美国经济制裁之苦。双方矛盾日积月累。

The rivalry and game between the two countries has never been interrupted since the US and Iran broke up in 1980. Americans fret about the 1979 occupation of the embassy in Iran, which has suffered decades of U.S. economic sanctions. The contradictions between the two sides accumulate day by day.

  2015年,伊朗与伊核问题六国签署伊核协议,让伊朗从经济制裁中缓了口气,但特朗普上台后撕毁了伊核协议,恢复对伊朗制裁,美伊关系再度紧张。

In 2015, Iran signed an Iran nuclear deal with six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue, giving Iran a reprieve from economic sanctions, but U.S.-Iranian relations were again tense after Trump took office, tearing up the deal and restoring sanctions on Iran.

  2019年是美伊在中东全面对抗的一年。美国对伊朗极限施压,伊朗逐步中止履行伊核协议。这一年的最后四个月,双方在伊拉克的暗地较量加剧。

2019 is the year of full-scale confrontation between the us and iraq in the middle east. The United States exerts extreme pressure on Iran, which has gradually suspended its implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement. During the last four months of the year, the two sides have seen a darker contest in Iraq.

  2019年最后一天,美国驻伊拉克大使馆遭到示威者冲击,特朗普认为伊朗是幕后黑手。这一幕也让美国人回想起40年前,驻伊朗大使馆被伊朗学生占领,52名美方人员被扣为人质的一幕。

On the last day of 2019, the U.S. embassy in Iraq was hit by demonstrators, and Trump believes Iran is behind it. The scene also reminds Americans of the fact that the embassy in Iran was occupied by Iranian students 40 years ago and 52 American personnel were taken hostage.

  苏莱曼尼是伊朗在中东势力的代表。中国前驻伊朗大使华黎明认为,特朗普下令击杀他,就是要除掉他的心腹之患,但没想到会捅马蜂窝。

Suleimani is the representative of Iran in the Middle East. Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, believed that Trump's order to kill him was to get rid of his confidants, but didn't expect to poke a hornet's nest.

  伊朗举国震怒,最高领袖哈梅内伊誓言强硬复仇。伊朗先是宣布中止履行伊核协议最后阶段措施,又通过动议将美军列为恐怖组织。最强硬的报复发生在1月8日凌晨,伊朗从本土发射导弹,袭击美国在伊拉克境内的两个基地。

The iranian nation is outraged, and supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei has vowed tough revenge. Iran announced the suspension of the final phase of its nuclear agreement and moved to list the U.S. military as a terrorist group. The toughest retaliation came in the early hours of January 8, when Iran fired missiles from home and attacked two U.S. bases in Iraq.

  当地时间1月8日上午,特朗普在白宫就伊朗袭击发表讲话,这可能是他上任以来受关注范围最大的一次讲话。因为全世界都在等待他的表态:打回去?还是忍下来?

Trump spoke at the White House on the morning of January 8, local time, about the Iranian attack, in what could be the most-watched speech since he took office. Because the world is waiting for his statement: call back? Or endure it?

  特朗普选择了后者。他此前在推特上发表的一切都好的推文,或许提前暗示了他的态度。特朗普强调,伊朗袭击没有造成美国人员伤亡,他不会以军事行动回应,但会对伊朗施加制裁。

Trump chose the latter. All the good tweets he's tweeted before may have hinted at his attitude in advance. Trump stressed that the Iranian attack did not cause US casualties and that he would not respond with military action but would impose sanctions on Iran.

  分析称,特朗普的讲话和他近来的严厉辞令形成鲜明对比。他曾誓言如果伊朗采取强力报复,美国可能以不对等方式进行反击。以美国的军事实力而言,这种反击对伊朗可能是致命的。但特朗普8日的回复,看起来字斟句酌,点到为止。

Mr. Trump's remarks are in stark contrast to his recent harsh rhetoric, according to the analysis. He has vowed that if Iran retaliates forcefully, the U. S. could respond in an unequal way. In terms of America's military might, such a counter-attack could be fatal to Iran. But Trump's eight-day reply seemed to be carefully worded, pointing to the end.

  伊朗的袭击也同样拿捏好了分寸。路透社援引熟悉情报评估人士的话称,伊朗发动攻击时,目标是避免击中美军部队,以免造成局势失控。

Iran's attacks are equally measured. The target is to avoid hitting U.S. forces in order to avoid causing the situation to get out of control, Reuters said, citing sources familiar with intelligence assessments.

  英国《金融时报》称,伊朗的行动既照顾到了德黑兰方面对苏莱曼尼被杀作出回应的需要,也降低了美国作出毁灭性反击的风险。美国《华尔街日报》也表示,伊朗的打击手法似乎要刻意避免局势进一步升级。

  华黎明表示,这是美伊之间不谋而合的一种默契,大家都不想把这个文章再继续做下去。我们希望双方都不要再把这个事情扩大,因为军事冲突扩大以后,可能会超出人的意志,存在演变成地区大战的危险性。

Mr. Hua said it was a tacit agreement between the United States and Iraq and that no one wanted to continue the work. We hope that both sides will not extend this matter, for the military conflict, when extended, may be beyond the will of the human being, and there is a danger of becoming a regional war.

  哈梅内伊说伊朗的袭击是打了美国一个耳光,而特朗普觉得袭击之后一切还好,不打算进行军事还击。美伊紧张局势暂时缓和,接下来呢?

Khamenei said the Iranian attack was a slap in the face to the United States, and Trump felt that everything was fine after the attack and did not plan a military counter-attack. U.S.-Iranian tensions have subsided for a while. What next?

  华黎明认为,伊朗继续报复是肯定的,但何时报复,报复到何种程度,怎样做对伊朗最有利,这是伊朗领导人要认真思考的问题。

Mr hua argues that iran's continued retaliation is positive, but it is a serious consideration for iran's leaders when, how much, and how much, it is best for iran.

  美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)称,无人机和导弹现在可能已经撤回,但如果认为这一阶段已经结束,就太天真了。特朗普的表态无助于化解一场几乎肯定会很快再次激化的对抗。

The drones and missiles may now have been withdrawn, according to CNN, but it would be naive to think that this phase is over. Trump's pronouncements do nothing to defuse a confrontation that will almost certainly intensify again soon.

  该网站分析称,尽管人们希望,从悬崖边上退一步将激励双方启动新的外交进程,但他们更有可能回到40年来普遍存在的相互憎恨的状态。而且,此次危险的僵局,可能已将双方对抗转变为一个新的、更危险的阶段。

While there is hope that a step back from the cliff edge will inspire both sides to start a new diplomatic process, they are more likely to return to the state of mutual hatred that has prevailed for 40 years, according to the site's analysis. Moreover, this dangerous stalemate may have turned the confrontation into a new and more dangerous phase.

  《金融时报》进一步指出,美伊局势依然危险,因为双方暴力相向的诱因依然存在。那就是,特朗普单方面退出伊核协议,并对伊朗进行包括经济制裁在内的极限施压。

The 《 Financial Times further noted that the situation in the United States and Iraq remained dangerous, as the trigger for violence between the two sides remained. That is, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and put pressure on Iran to its limits, including economic sanctions.

  该报分析称,倘若美国真的进一步收紧制裁,德黑兰方面可能会通过地区代理势力,对美国及其盟友加大非对称战争,将美军赶出中东地区。

If the u.s. does tighten further, tehran could use regional proxy forces to intensify asymmetric warfare against the u.s. and its allies to drive u.s. forces out of the middle east, the paper said.

  美国是世界军事实力排名第一的国家,伊朗则是中东最强大的国家之一。美伊对抗升级,不论是直接对抗,还是通过地区代理人对抗,都将影响中东的格局。

The United States ranks first in the world in military power, and Iran is one of the most powerful in the Middle East. The escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation, whether directly or through regional agents, will affect the pattern of the Middle East.

  现在美国和伊朗的矛盾成为中东地区最大的矛盾,这是中东地区这几十年来格局最大的变化。而且我可以预见,就是未来几十年里,伊朗问题还会成为美国在这个地区面临的主要问题。华黎明说。

The conflict between the United States and Iran is now the biggest in the Middle East, the biggest change in the region in decades. And I can foresee that in the next few decades, the Iranian issue will be the major problem facing the US in the region. 'he said.

  但是,特朗普在中东尤其是对伊朗的战略却备受质疑。《纽约时报》评论员马科斯费什表示,他与欧洲、美国和中东的多位专家的一致意见是:几乎没有人知道特朗普有什么伊朗战略。

But Trump's strategy in the Middle East, especially against Iran, is in question. Mr. Marcos Fisch, a New York Times commentator, said he agreed with a number of experts in Europe, the United States and the Middle East that few knew about Mr. Trump's Iranian strategy.

  文章认为,刺杀苏莱曼尼之后,几乎一夜之间,美国在中东地区的所有目标都严重受损:美国要伊朗去核,伊朗现在宣布中止履行核协议;美国要控制伊朗的影响力,现在美国的盟友却伊拉克要求美军撤走。(完)

The article argues that almost overnight after the assassination of suleimani, all u.s. targets in the middle east were badly damaged: the u.s. wants iran to go nuclear, and iran is now suspending its nuclear deal; and the u.s. wants to control iran's influence, now its allies are calling for u.s. troops to withdraw. (end)


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